Opportunities and Risks from Monetary Policy

James Aitken




Episode: 326
July 10, 2023

Episode Description:

James Aitken is the Founder of Aitken Advisors, a one-man macroeconomic consultancy based in Wimbledon, England that works with one hundred of the most influential pools of capital in the world. James has been a repeat guest on the show. Our very first conversation five years ago including his background and process, and the most recent one last year are replayed in the feed. If you search on the podcast page at capitalallocators.com, you can find the rest of his appearances.

Our conversation this time around covers the precarious set-up from fiscal and monetary policy. We turn to attractive opportunities arising from it in the U.S. industrial complex, Japan, and the UK, and risks on the horizon from volatility targeting, unprofitable businesses, illiquid exposures, and the absence of governments willing to embrace pain. We close with James’ thoughts on his home country of Australia and, for the first time, how he is making his research more broadly available.

Show Notes:

04:55 Fiscal and monetary policy setup
17:02 Banking system
21:44 Budget deficit
28:24 Attractive opportunities
31:24 US industrial complex
33:19 Japan
35:32 UK
39:24 Risks from volatility targeting
47:54 Unprofitable businesses
49:13 Illiquid exposures
50:39 Unwillingness of governments to embrace pain
51:54 Australia
56:04 Aitken Advisors research

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