Geopolitical Uncertainty
Episode Description:
Last week was one of the most volatile in market history. In the last twenty-five years, it’s likely matched only by the pandemic and Global Financial Crisis in the breadth of potential outcomes for the future. In a change from our typical market-insensitive conversations, I was fortunate to gather three of the most insightful thinkers on global macroeconomics and geopolitics on Friday to share their assessment of the changing landscape.
My guests are James Aitken, Marko Papic, and Louis-Vincent Gave. James is the founder of Aitken Advisors, Marko is the Macro-Geopolitical Chief Strategist and Vice President at BCA Research, and Louis is the Co-Founder of Gavekal Research. Each are past guests on the show, and their first appearances are replayed in the feed.
Our conversation explores the shifting landscape of global markets and geopolitics, highlighting their shared belief in the end of U.S. exceptionalism. We dive into the conditions leading into Liberation Day, the motivations of the U.S. and China, and the likely outcome of the tariff wars.
We then turn to the markets, covering the weakening U.S. dollar, rise of non-aligned nations, opportunities emerging in Latin America, Europe, and Asia, U.S. Treasuries and the yield curve, and private markets. We close with thoughts on potential winners and losers while unpacking how allocators can navigate this period of profound change.
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All opinions expressed by Ted and podcast guests are solely their own opinions and do not reflect the opinion of the firms they represent. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as a basis for investment decisions.