Lack of Consensus

February 13, 2021 by Ted Seides

What struck me most about our virtual guest happy hours was the lack of consensus on ideas. Single stock ideas ranged from quality growth to deep value, and tobacco and oil alongside the evident wave of ESG.  Private equity ideas spanned big core to idiosyncratic. Themes ranged from cannabis to Japanese small caps. Macro included gold, inflation, and deflation.

Most of the time, I find that smart minds agree on certain themes (whether or not they play out), which are typically similar to those deemed most attractive in GMO’s Seven-Year Forecasts. Today, long-term mean reversion, shareholder capitalism, and the nature of the economic system itself are being questioned more than any time I can remember.

So what to do? (tip of the cap to James Aitken).  Despite the lack of consensus, the investible, one-off ideas shared by guests were fantastic. Pick your favorite – it’s time for active management to shine.